It leverages the know-how to respond more quickly to outbreaks by “pivoting to collaborate,” said Jean Patterson, senior program officer for the CREID network.
Researchers can use a prototype pathogen approach to study how and where infectious diseases emerge from wildlife in order to make the leap into humans. Scientists report from 10 centers in the US and 28 other countries developing diagnostic, therapeutic and vaccine families that can be targeted and deployed the next time a “Pathogen X” comes into the world.
Krammer, who did not respond to interview requests, has speculated that new vaccines could be developed just 3 weeks after a new virus was discovered and used immediately in a Phase 3 study – earlier Phase 1-2 studies. “Because a production correlate has been established for a closely related virus, the correlate can be used to measure the effectiveness of the vaccine,” he writes.
The results of the clinical study could then be available just under three months later. And while clinical trials are underway, global production could be ramped up and distribution chains activated in advance so that the vaccine could begin rolling out immediately after that 3 month mark, he suggests.
New world records would be set. And if the emerging virus is identical or almost indistinguishable to one of the vaccines developed, existing stocks could already be used for phase 3 studies, which would cost even more time.
But how fast is too fast?
Wang, now a professor at Washington University’s Medical School in St. Louis, is unsure whether a series of Phase 1 and Phase 2 studies in related viruses would be enough to get initial studies for a vaccine against a new one To replace pathogens.
Further investment in understanding the immune response to a wide variety of viruses will help shape future vaccine development. However, the schedule proposed for the phase 3 study would be an absolute best-case scenario. “And it depends a lot on the infection rate in the sites chosen for the vaccine studies,” he says. The Oxford AstraZeneca studies raised concerns early on whether there would be enough cases to gather evidence, given the low rate of infection in the UK this summer.
“For a virus that spreads less efficiently than SARSCoV-2, it can take significantly longer for enough events to occur in the vaccine population to assess effectiveness,” said Wang.
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