The rebellion was not a spontaneous occasion sparked by speeches on January sixth – and that’s the level

That Trump was actually going to lose the election was certainly no surprise to anyone who paid attention. Trump supporters may have turned out to be in greater numbers than expected, but the aversion generated by four years of his chaotic reign brought those who opposed Trump out in numbers large enough to inundate that support. In addition to undoing Trump’s surprise victories in the Rust Belt states, Joe Biden flipped states like Arizona and Georgia. The election results were a clear signal of how Trump’s actions to marry Republicans even closer to expose racism, xenophobia and isolationism had harmed the party far more than many realized.

Trump was certainly not surprised by the results on election day. Not only had he already salted the earth with allegations of electoral fraud, but he had immediately urged his supporters to disrupt the proper counting of votes in locations from Philadelphia to Detroit to Las Vegas. Trump immediately dispatched several legal teams to file lawsuits in defense of his claims. And he immediately called officials at all levels to ensure their cooperation in the fight against democracy.

Like Trump, members of the white supremacist militia movement were not surprised by the result. After years of receiving signals from Trump that it was okay to get “rough” and “stand by”, these groups were more than ready to respond to Trump’s loss to the polls.

According to the Washington Post, charges that were unsealed on Wednesday show members of the Oath Keepers – a group made up of a large number of military and law enforcement agencies – for one as early as November 9, just six days after the election Attack on the Capitol. They didn’t just reach out to existing members of their organization. A group of Ohio members (now arrested) planned a “basic training camp” to prepare new members to fight the election. And while the stories of “Antifa buses” constantly circulating on the right are entirely fictional, the white supremacist militia group definitely planned to bring “at least one full bus with over 40 people from NC” along with massive amounts of weapons . The plans even included a description of how weapons should be brought in by truck in advance so that militia officers could continue to Washington in the event the bus stopped.

Some Republicans have suggested, bizarrely, that the fact that the January 6 insurrection involved advanced planning somehow exempts Trump from the impeachment charges. After all, his speech that morning could hardly have stimulated the mob to break out the tiki torches if they had come to Washington to carry out … executions.

The problem with this argument is everything. First of all, the impeachment papers make it clear that the problem with a single “Stop the Steal” rally was bigger than just Trump’s words. A timeline of events since election day makes it clear that Trump’s instigation began long before the morning of the uprising. Trump was very conscious of everything he did up to that day, including the signals he sent to groups like the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and other white supremacist militias.

The events of January 6th were not a spontaneous uprising. That’s what it’s all about. They were the result of actions Trump had taken – not just on that day, not just since Election Day, but over a period of years – to activate a white supremacist base, reassure them of support, and turn them into violent measures to encourage. Militiamen arrested after participating in the riot sent messages in advance with statements such as, “If Trump activated the insurgency law, I would hate to miss it.” They didn’t do that out of thin air. They did it because Trump supporters from Michael Flynn to Mike Lindell openly encouraged Trump to take this measure, and they were still invited to speak at Trump events.

Trump did not cross the Rubicon on January 6th. He waded this stream day in and day out for years.

Immediately after the uprising, the Republicans seemed appalled that the barbarians were not just standing outside the gates, but inside the building. The call to remove Trump under the 25th Amendment did not only come from Democrats. The idea that impeachment could overcome the two-thirds hurdle in the Senate was taken seriously.

But all it took was the slightest disapproval from Trump to get the Republicans back on track. He didn’t even have to leave the golf course to have Tucker Carlson explain the Rubicon was hardly a creek after all, or to get the weakest spine in Congress to blame Nancy Pelosi for the whole uprising. Republican leaders have had every opportunity in the past three weeks to turn their party away from Trump for good, in ways that might have made them and the nation stronger. Instead, they passed out at the first mention of the dreaded “third party”.

As with any other Trump outrage, Republicans briefly voiced outrage. Then they pulled back just long enough to receive the next show of hands from Trump and Fox. Then reassured, they stepped back to pretend, as always, that whatever Trump did wasn’t a big deal, wasn’t worth making a fuss, and after all, Hillary Clinton didn’t even email something? Now we’ve got to the point where they declare that the real outrage isn’t that armed insurgents broke into the Capitol, spread blood and excrement on the walls, ransacked convention offices, and looked for hostages by those waiting Gallows can be sent outside. The real outrage is that everyone is making a fuss. The next step is where Republicans are calling for an official Trump Bridge to commemorate that patriotic Rubicon crossing. And a federal holiday on January 6th to celebrate his triumph.

If the next violent attack continues, expect the Republicans to be temporarily scandalized. But only for a moment.