The Hamburg spring arrives later … – What is the matter with it?

Reposted from the NoTricksZone

By P. Gosselin on March 28, 2021

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The Antarctic sea ice will grow by 2 million square kilometers in 4 years …

It is difficult to support the statement: global warming is global. Some places have warmed over the past 40 years (e.g. the Arctic), but others have not.

Antarctica definitely didn’t go along with the man-made hoax about global warming. (Yes, humans caused some of the warming, but not all – and it’s certainly not catastrophic).

Antarctic sea ice fluctuations

Although the Antarctic sea ice fell to a “record low” in 2017 – after reaching a “record high” in 2015 – the latest data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows that the sea ice at the South Pole has come back strongly since then, rising sharply around 500,000 km² above the mean.

Cropped parts of the diagram, source: NSIDC.

On March 26, 2017, the Antarctic sea ice had a size of 3.055 million km². Four years later, the sea ice reached 5.103 million km². That’s a difference of more than 2 million square kilometers, which is an area the size of Saudi Arabia!

No way to ignore natural factors

Why should sea ice grow so fast? If the ice had disappeared, many greenhouse gases would blame it – absurd, of course. And it would be just as absurd to attribute the recent gain to the global slowdown. Obviously, there are a complex set of natural factors at work – factors that climate alarmists have consistently ignored over the past few decades.

Here is the satellite photo of Antarctica from March 26, 2021:

Source: NSIDC

Spring in Hamburg tends a little later

The spring trend in Hamburg is an interesting climate anecdote. According to our friends from Die kalte Sonne here, Hamburg’s forsythia blooms always seem late. Not even what we would expect from “warming”.

By Josef Kowatsch

The perceived beginning of spring in Germany is when the Hamburg forsythia bush blooms in the city center. The location at the Lombard Bridge on the Alster is well suited, as the area has hardly changed in the last 50 years. The phenologist Jens Iska-Holtz dates the flowering date for 2021 to March 25, i.e. 84 days since the beginning of the year. The following graphic has been created over the past 50 years:

Fig. 1: Development of forsythia bloom in Hamburg since 1972. The X-axis shows the years since 1972, the Y-axis the flowering date, measured in days after the beginning of the year, ie from January 1st.

There is no noticeable trend in the flowering dates of the Hamburg forsythia shrub on the Alster. The average is 79 days from the beginning of the year. At 84 days, the start of flowering this year was slightly above average.

Hamburg Spring 11 days later since 1990

Next we consider the new climate reference period 1991 to 2020 as the observation period:

Fig. 2: Development of the forsythia bloom in Hamburg since 1991. Note: rising trend line means delay. At the beginning of the observation 31 years ago, the forsythia tended to flower at the end of February, the flowering date moved back further and further into March. The last bloom in February was 2008.

Cooling off February

What explains the delay in the spring since 1991 in Germany? Global warming? Carbon dioxide?

The month of February is crucial for the forsythia bloom. The corresponding graphic from the Hamburg weather station for February shows only a slight cooling since 1988.

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Fig. 3: February temperatures in Hamburg since 1988 according to original data from the German Weather Service.

Let’s get to the question of the year since the forsythia bloom has been delayed:

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Fig. 4: Since 1985, i.e. for 37 years, the forsythia, the DWD’s flagship for the beginning of spring in downtown Hamburg, has shown a slight delay in flowering of 5 to 6 days.

The reason for the rising trend line and thus the delay are probably the warm February months of 1988/89/90 at the beginning of the observation period.

Result: The forsythia flower has been around 37 years – clearly from 36 years – although the shrub is located on a warm island in downtown Hamburg. You will probably look in vain for reports in the media about the delaying trend of the Hamburg spring bloomer.

Those who read The Cold Sun [or NoTricksZone] Blog will therefore know more.

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