Pew’s class breakdown of GOP voters / Leaner who endorsed the $ 1.9 trillion plan is worth revisiting:
- 63% of lower-income Republicans (a group that makes up 25% of all Republicans)
- 37% of Republicans in middle-income households (50% of all Republicans)
- 25% of higher-income Republicans (21% of all Republicans)
Almost two-thirds of the working class voters Donald Trump brought into the Republican tent supported Biden’s bailout plan. This is a potential disaster for GOP lawmakers who, instead of trying to bolster their own brand, have reattached their car to Trump’s falling stars in hopes that his constituents will fuel their medium-term comeback.
What we already know about lower-income voters is that they are less likely to vote with the same odds as higher-income voters. Trump voters also have the proven pattern of not appearing in elections where Trump does not vote (2018 medium term, 2018 Kansas gubernatorial, 2019 Louisiana gubernatorial, 2021 Georgia Senate outflow). In addition, polls suggest that many Trump voters do indeed harbor a particular disdain for the Republican establishment, and likely for politicians in general. In her view, Trump was never really a politician and therefore not really part of the atrocity that Washington is. A February poll by Kos / Civiqs found that of the 45% of those who voted for Trump last November, 30% identified themselves as “Trump supporters” while only 15% identified themselves as “Republican Party supporters” were. In other words, twice as many Trump voters by 2020 see themselves as part of Trump’s party, not the GOP.
Republican lawmakers are very confused on this point. They are just overjoyed at the idea that Trump inspired 74 million Americans to become Republicans in 2020, and they are absolutely desperate to recreate this voter turnout phenomenon in future elections.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio told POLITICO this week about Trump: “He has brought a lot of new voters into the party that we want to keep.”
This is where Republicans bring Trump voters together with Republican Party voters. Trump didn’t necessarily bring a “group of new voters” into the GOP, he brought them into the Trump party as it is. In the meantime, the Republican Party continues to make absolute zips for them, as evidenced by the GOP’s 100% opposition to the American bailout plan.
Trump is a true demagogue – he doesn’t lead his people, he follows them. If there’s one thing Trump is really masterful at, it’s figuring out what his specific base of cultists wants and then jumping in front of this parade. And last December, ahead of the Georgia runoff election, Trump suddenly asked Congress to change its $ 900 billion stimulus plan to provide $ 2,000 direct payments to people instead of just $ 600. It was classic Trump. The Democrats had been pushing for bigger payments all along, but Trump hadn’t bothered to participate in any of the negotiations and was clearly unable to broker the deal. Then he later complained about the outcome when it was too late to do anything about it (although the House Democrats tried to seize the opportunity).
But a key takeaway from this pathetic episode is that Trump clearly knew what his base wanted, even if he was too incompetent to deliver. Now the entire Republican congressional delegation has again rejected what two-thirds of lower-income GOP voters wanted – a package of aid that aimed to provide generous benefits to the poor working class Americans who need it most.
As I pointed out on Friday, Republicans have a number of other problems in 2022. They can no longer fortify their base with anti-Biden vitriol like they did with President Barack Obama in 2009 – certainly because Biden is white. Vendors say they can’t give away anti-biden merch at events like CPAC.
Instead, Republicans were reduced to Dr. Seuss-Mr. Potato Head is outraged at a time when three-quarters of Americans know someone who has had the pandemic, 36% say they know someone who died from it, and 44% of households still admit financial losses suffer.
As Biden noted, times are desperate, the American people called for help and only the Democrats responded to that call. Although many Democratic voters are now fixated on selling that success to the country, much of the sale has already been made. The legislation is deeply popular and has remained so.
The bigger hurdle now is implementing it and making sure the massive plan delivers on all of the promises it delivers.
“You don’t really have to sell that bill,” White House senior adviser Anita Dunn told the Washington Post. “It’s one of the few bills that has become more popular, no less, as Congress progressed. We don’t have to convince people that Americans need help. We have to tell them how to get this help. “
This is also Biden’s focus when he and Vice President Kamala Harris took to the streets in the coming weeks to implement the democratic package.
“It is one thing to pass the American rescue plan,” said Biden on Friday at the celebration of the Democratic Rose Garden. “It will be a different matter to implement. It will require careful monitoring to ensure that there is no waste or fraud and that the law is doing what it was designed to do. “
As the Biden White House knows, since the Affordable Care Act website was first launched in 2013, implementation has been the next key element in building a successful democratic platform for 2022. The American people overwhelmingly wanted this bill – now it must be able to use whatever help it promises to shower down on them.
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