Jan 15, 2021 – The CDC urges Americans to double precautionary measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus as the new B.1.1.7 super strain hits the US
New CDC models show the new strain could cause more than half of all new infections in this country by March, even if the US is racing to use vaccines
“It’s not necessarily what’s going to happen everywhere, but we await this path,” said study author Michael Johansson, PhD, a member of the CDC’s COVID-19 response team.
The new strain has important genetic changes to its spike protein that help the virus move more easily from person to person. It is estimated to be around 50% more contagious than the major versions of the coronavirus currently in circulation. First discovered in the UK, it has forced England, Ireland and Wales into another round of tight lockdowns as patients overwhelm hospitals there.
So far, only 76 cases are known in the US, which is less than 0.3% of all COVID cases here. However, the strain is so contagious that these cases are expected to double every week until this version of the virus becomes the main cause of new infections.
Scientists fear that this super-exposure will cause devastating spikes in case numbers and deaths. The fluctuations will come as many hospitals are already operating past their fracture points, causing death rates to rise as patients who might once have survived fall victim to a lack of resources for their treatment, including a lack of staff, equipment and beds.
The CDC’s new modeling shows that strain B.1.1.7 could account for a large portion of COVID cases in the US in March. In a “what if” scenario, the modeling shows that the total number of COVID cases will rise again at the end of April, reaching a maximum of more than 200,000 cases per day if no one is vaccinated.
Of course, vaccines are now being shipped to states, making this worst-case scenario unlikely.
Vaccinating at least 1 million people in the US every day would not completely stop the spread, but it should cut the number of new daily cases at its peak in half – from an estimated 200,000 to 100,000.
This vaccination rate has not yet been reached in the USA. As of Jan. 14, CDC data showed the US had not given 10 million doses, less than half the doses expected to be given late last year.
The CDC’s modeling also showed that vaccination was most effective when strictly adhered to measures that stop the virus from spreading, such as: B. Hand washing, wearing masks and social distancing. If the public followed these rules more aggressively while the US pushed its vaccination campaign forward, it could cut the expected high by more than two-thirds.
“We really understand that people are tired and for some it’s getting harder and harder to create social distance and wear their masks, but we have to do what we can now,” says Johansson. “We are far from being out of the woods.”
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CDC weekly report on morbidity and mortality, early publication, January 15, 2021: “Origin of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 line – USA, December 29, 2020 – January 12, 2021.”
Michael Johansson, PhD, COVID-19 Response Team, CDC, Atlanta.
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