“The severity of a pandemic, the persistent disparities, as well as the closure of fertility services and the cessation of immigration, which are major contributors to the birth rate, are all factors associated with the significant decline in births,” Gupta said.
“So it’s not unexpected. The numbers in the United States are decreasing every year. And 2020 is clearly a six year straight decline, ”he noted. “But before that the numbers went down by an average of about 50,000 a year, and this report shows about 140,000 fewer births, nearly three times as much.”
It wasn’t just the pandemic, he added. “Almost one in four babies in this country is born to an immigrant. And we clearly saw some challenges that would have affected births,” said Gupta.
Based on the events of the 1918 pandemic flu, Gupta expects the decline in the birth rate possibly to continue through 2022. It may be a year or two before people have the confidence to have families, he said.
“If you look at the 1918 pandemic, the birth rate fell 10% about nine to 10 months after the peak of deaths,” he said. “We had roughly 5,000 deaths in one day in February, so we will certainly see fewer births in 2021, and it could happen in 2022.”
If this trend continues, it will have a huge social impact as the workforce falls as older people retire and live longer, according to Dr. Jennifer Wu, obstetrician and gynecologist at Lenox Hill Hospital in New York City.
Wu believes the economy is playing a role in the falling birth rate as couples choose to have fewer children. The desire for education and a job delay pregnancy for some women, for others the need to work makes large families problematic.
“The falling birth rate has many economic implications, but the falling birth rate also has many implications for the earth in general and climate change,” said Wu. “There are many forces at play and it is daunting to know what is best in the long run.”
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