Musk says that refueling starships for moon landings would require eight launches (perhaps 4)

By Last updated Aug 19, 2021

The battle over who can bring the Artemis astronauts back to the moon continues! It all started when NASA announced it had placed the order for their Human Landing System (HLS), the reusable lunar lander that would take the Artemis III astronauts to the surface of the moon. That decision didn’t go well with the other two finalists, Blue Origin and Dynetics, who appealed the decision because NASA showed “favoritism”.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) turned down these appeals, prompting Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos to bring out the big guns. Not only have they filed a lawsuit in federal court and lobbied for Congress, but they also waged a public relations war against SpaceX itself that challenges and challenges its safety record. In response, Elon Musk took to Twitter to address Blue Origin’s claims and correct the record.

Blue Origin filed the lawsuit on August 13 in the US Federal Court, which deals with pecuniary claims against the US government and has jurisdiction wherever protests are made in response to GAO investigations. In a statement accompanying the filing, a Blue Origin spokesperson reiterated previous claims about NASA’s procurement process:

“Blue Origin has filed a lawsuit with the US Federal Court of Justice to address the shortcomings in the acquisition process for NASA’s Human Landing System. We strongly believe that the issues identified in this procurement and their outcomes must be addressed to restore fairness, create competition, and ensure a safe return to the moon for America. ”

16 flights are extremely unlikely. The spacecraft’s payload for orbit is ~ 150 tons, so a maximum of 8 to fill the lunar spacecraft’s 1200 tonne tanks.

Without flaps and a heat shield, Starship is much lighter. Lunar landing legs don’t add much (1/6 gravity). Can only take 1/2 full which means 4 tanker flights.

– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 11, 2021

Musk commented on the controversy online in response to a Twitter post from Christian Davenport, a space reporter for the Washington Post. Davenport covered the ongoing controversy and released an excerpt from Blue Origin’s legal filing. The excerpt refers to GAO’s report in response to protests by Blue Origin and Dynetics in April (shortly after NASA announced its decision on a single contractor).

In addition to reiterating its earlier claims that SpaceX received “preferential treatment”, the filing also pointed out that there are performance and safety issues with SpaceX’s HLS concept:

“We are particularly concerned about the lack of Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) in the SpaceX proposal. SpaceX’s complex approach requires 16 consecutive launches with only three total readiness checks instead of one for each launch, which is common industry practice.

“Readiness checks are fundamental to safety and are particularly important for reusable vehicles and multiple take-offs in quick succession. We continue to urge NASA to restore competition and immediately assign a second supplier. Two providers ensure more security and mission success, promote competition and control costs. “

The core of Blue Origin and Dynetic’s appeal to the GOA had to do with the acquisition strategy of the HLS program. As part of the Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP-2), NASA hoped to sign a contract with two of the three finalists. The purpose was to “create the most competitive environment practicable and to maximize the likelihood of successful development culminating in crewed demonstration missions”.

Infographic produced by Blue Origin criticizing the Starship’s likely performance. Photo credit: Blue Origin

But shortly after announcing that SpaceX would receive an Option A contract for the HLS design, NASA issued a source selection statement that said this was due to budget constraints. “While the agency remains the desire to maintain a competitive environment at this stage of the HLS program, at the starting prices and milestone payment phases suggested by each of the Option A providers, NASA’s current fiscal year did not support even a single Option A award “, they said.

This led Blue Origin and Dynetics to claim that NASA has given up on its commitment to promoting a competitive environment. They also accused NASA of malicious intent by failing to explore other options, such as consulting potential contractors and letting them know that the situation has changed since the original Annex H, NextSTEP-2 tender , had changed.

In response, NASA issued a work freeze on April 30th until the issue with GAO could be resolved. On July 30, GAO decided in favor of NASA, despite Bezos’ offer (two days earlier), to provide $ 2 billion from his company’s own money to cover the cost of HLS procurement (from a total of $ 6 Billion US dollars). Since then, Bezos has shifted his tactics to asking Congress for more funding for the HLS program while filing a lawsuit in federal court.

In addition, he has launched a public relations campaign against NASA and SpaceX with a series of infographics and explanations (which can be found on Blue Origin’s website) on the complexities and risks of SpaceX’s HLS system (a modified version of the Starship). This echoes Blue Origin’s earlier statement to GAO claiming SpaceX had a sloppy record with the Starship, evidenced by the loss of several SN prototypes.

In response to Davenport, Musk stepped in to correct some of Blue Origin’s bolder claims, tweeting that “16 flights are extremely unlikely. The spacecraft’s payload for orbit is ~ 150 tons, so a maximum of 8 to fill 1200 tonne tanks of the lunar spacecraft. Starship is much lighter without flaps and heat shield. Lunar landing legs don’t add much (1/6 gravity). Possibly only needs 1/2 full, ie 4 tanker flights. “

“Note, should be” refill “, not” refuel “. ~ 78% of the propellant is liquid oxygen, only ~ 22% is fuel, ”he added in a subsequent tweet. Moving from the technical to the company’s current account, he added: “But even if there were 16 flights with docking, this is not a problem. SpaceX performed more than 16 orbital flights in the first half of 2021 and docked at the station over 20 times (much more difficult than docking with our own ship).

In keeping with the way Musk and Bezos have traded bards on social media in the past, Musk cast some shadow over Blue Origin and its accomplishments. In a tweet at a conference, Musk posted a picture of Blue Origin’s lunar lander (the Blue Moon) whose balloon (which simulated where the liquid hydrogen tank would be) looked deflated. Musk has labeled the picture with the word: “Somehow that wasn’t convincing …”

Much like his previous comments, in which he made fun of Blue Origin’s failure to enter orbit with any of its rockets, Musk also took the opportunity for good, old-fashioned ridicule. “If lobbying and lawyers could get you into orbit, Bezos would be on Pluto,” he said. Two days later, he threw more gasoline on the fire and said, “The sad thing is that even if Santa Claus suddenly gives his hardware for free, the first thing you want to do is cancel it.”

A similar BO graphic that highlights the simplicity and effectiveness of their own design. Photo credit: Blue Origin

It’s a sad thing when billionaires argue over who is “preferred” by the federal government. Unfortunately, this ongoing battle for the HLS contract isn’t the only problem causing delays in the Artemis program. In addition to the delays in the Space Launch System (SLS) and the Orion capsule, NASA is also having problems completing the spacesuits for the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Units (xEMU).

For this reason, there are currently serious doubts that NASA can send a manned mission to the lunar surface by November 2024 (e.g. the Artemis III mission). On the other hand, there have been doubts about this accelerated deadline since its release in 2018. Meanwhile, NASA has continued to persevere and keep an eye on the overall goal: to bring astronauts back to the moon for the first time in over fifty years – this time to stay!

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