TUESDAY, February 2, 2021 (HealthDay News) – Could COVID-19 evolve, like influenza, to grow and wane with the seasons? New research suggests this.
At the start of the pandemic, some experts suggested that SARS-CoV-2 – the virus that causes COVID-19 – might behave like many other coronaviruses that are more prevalent in the fall and winter.
To find out if this could be the case, the researchers analyzed COVID-19 data from 221 countries – including cases, death rates, recovery rates, test rates and hospital stays. The researchers found a strong correlation with temperature and latitude.
“One conclusion is that the disease can be seasonal, like the flu. This is very relevant to what we should expect from now on after the vaccine controls those first waves of COVID-19,” said lead study author Gustavo Caetano -Anollés. He is a professor at the CR Woese Institute of Genome Biology at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
The same research team previously identified areas in the SARS-CoV-2 virus genome that are subject to rapid mutation.
Similar viruses show seasonal increases in mutation rates, so the researchers looked for associations between mutations in SARS-CoV-2 and temperature, latitude and longitude.
“Our results suggest that the virus is changing at its own pace, and mutations are affected by factors other than temperature or latitude. We don’t know exactly what those factors are, but we can now say that seasonal effects are independent of the genetic makeup of are the virus, “said Caetano-Anollés in a press release from the university.
More research is needed to learn more about how climate and different seasons can affect COVID-19 rates, the team added.
The study’s authors suggested that people’s immune systems might play a role. The immune system can be affected by temperature and diet, including vitamin D, which plays an important role in immunity. With less sun exposure in winter, most people don’t make enough vitamin D.
“We know that the flu is seasonal and that we get a break in the summer. That gives us the opportunity to build the flu vaccine for the following autumn,” said Caetano-Anollés. “If we’re still in the midst of a raging pandemic, this interruption doesn’t exist. Perhaps learning how to strengthen our immune systems could help fight the disease as we strive to catch up with the ever-changing coronavirus.”
The study was published online January 26 in the journal Evolutionary Bioinformatics.
More information
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has more about COVID-19.
SOURCE: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, news release, Jan. 27, 2021
Comments are closed.