According to an IHME model, staying at home and away from other people as much as possible during the spring could save around 30,000 lives
The E484K mutation is already causing misery in Manaus, Brazil, a city of 2 million people in the Amazon rainforest.
Like the US, Brazil failed to deliver on its efforts to alleviate the COVID-19 crisis last year. Like former President Donald Trump, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has downplayed the risk of the virus and many people there have refused to follow public health recommendations like wearing masks or social distancing.
As a result, Manaus was so badly affected during the numerous cases last spring that scientists who examined blood samples there estimated that more than 75% of the population could be infected. As cases receded in the summer, many wondered if so many people in Manaus had developed antibodies to the virus that they had achieved some community protection or herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 .
As it turned out, the city was not exempt from COVID.
Some newer variants of the virus that cause # COVID19 spread more easily, which can lead to more cases. More cases could put more strain on health care resources, lead to more hospitalizations and potentially more deaths. pic.twitter.com/2AptA72nr4
– CDC (@CDCgov) January 28, 2021
In December, cases started climbing again and hospitals were again overwhelmed. In some emergency rooms, oxygen ran out and patients were suffocated from lack of treatment.
The second wave confused researchers and sent them on a quest for answers. When they looked at the genetic instructions for the coronavirus that was causing the new wave of infections, they found that these blueprints had changed significantly from the original “wild-type” virus.
Viruses are always changing. When they copy themselves and jump from host to host, they make mistakes in this copying process called mutations. Sometimes these mutations provide the virus with important benefits that help it dominate other forms of the virus.
This new taste or this new variant of the coronavirus found in Manaus – called P.1 – had 17 significant changes compared to the original.
One of them, the N501Y mutation, is also present in the variant first identified in Great Britain, which made the virus more contagious and caused a further increase in the cases there. It seems to help make the virus more easily attach to doors of our cells called ACE2 receptors.
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