From the Manhattan Contrarian
Over time I have had many contributions to the scientific method, most recently here in January 2021. You are making a falsifiable hypothesis. Then collect and examine the evidence. If the evidence contradicts your hypothesis, then you need to give it up and move on. Really, that’s the whole thing.
Then there is an awakened “science” most visible these days in the areas of response to the Covid-19 virus and climate change. Here the principles are a little different. In the lively “science” there is no falsifiable hypothesis. Instead, we have the official Orthodox consensus view. The officially orthodox consensus view has been taken by all the brightest people because it just seems like it has to be right. The official Orthodox consensus view must not be contradicted by ordinary people like you in particular. Based on the official orthodox consensus view, those in power can take away all your freedom (Covid) and / or change the entire economy (climate). After all, it’s “science”.
But what if evidence seems to contradict the official orthodox consensus view? I am sorry, but as I said, the official orthodox consensus view cannot be contradicted. Today’s news brings some extreme examples of this, one on the viral front and the other on climate. Both are from Europe so you may not have seen them.
In the area of viruses, we consider the case of Germany. For some reason, Germany has been relatively easily affected by the virus, at least so far. According to the latest information from Worldometers, there have been 940 deaths per million inhabitants in Germany so far. This is comparable to, for example, 2,593 deaths per million in the Czech Republic (the worst of all countries), 1,864 in the UK and 1,732 in the US. From around the middle of March, however, there was another “increase” in cases in Germany. Why? Some might say that sooner or later the virus will only get to you. But on March 23rd, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a new three-week “lockdown” of the strictest variety, which included the forced closure of most stores from April 1st to April 5th. Tricks Zone reports today that further expansions are being considered:
The federal government is striving for even stricter blocking measures. Freedom has been suspended indefinitely in Europe.
The problem here is that the claim that locking works was a falsifiable hypothesis would have been falsified by now. The most striking data comes from here in the US, where strict lockdown states like New York (2,642 deaths per million to date), New Jersey (2,800), Illinois (1878), and Michigan (1759) continue to be widespread in open places like Florida (1584 ) and Texas (1705). Try to find actual data on lock effectiveness and you cannot. That is, aside from its effectiveness in creating an unemployment rate of 13% in New York City versus 4.8% in Florida.
But like the blue US states, Germany works according to the alternative principles of lively “science”. After all, data or no data, all the smartest people know that locks have to work. No Tricks Zone reports today on a press conference that took place in Germany on Friday (April 9th). An independent journalist named Boris Reitschuster had the opportunity to ask Oliver Ewald, a spokesman for the German Ministry of Health, a question. Here is the question (translation from NTZ):
Mr. Ewald, [a journalist] at the WZ wrote in a report that the federal government has no evidence of the effectiveness of lockdowns. So my question is: What scientific studies do you have?Many Thanks.”
And here is the first answer as well as another back and forth:
Ewald: Mr. Reitschuster, you know that we generally do not evaluate comments from journalists, and that is why I will adhere to them here. “
Reitschuster: There is a misunderstanding, Mr. Ewald, I only addressed one quote and then asked a separate question, and this question has nothing to do with the quote. I will gladly repeat the question again; what scientific study … “
Ewald: If you read a sentence from this comment here and request an evaluation without providing a further context or a further basis, so to speak, I cannot say anything about it. “
Reitschuster: Which scientific study has the federal government carried out for the third time without a judgment? Many Thanks.”
Ewald: I said what I have to say about it! “
NTZ comments: “We all know that there is no study that supports bans, and so Speaker Ewald is clearly trapped.” However, you should expect the lockdown to continue in Germany.
About on the topic of climate change. As you may have read, the past week has seen a record-breaking cold across much of Europe which, as we are well into April, has caused significant damage to plants in their early stages of spring growth. In fact, chances are you haven’t read about it at all. That’s because the US mainstream media mostly only reports record heat, not record cold. As an example, I can’t find any mention of the subject of the cold snap in Europe in the New York Times (although I can find an article in the Washington Post).
Especially in view of the great damage to the harvest, let alone the readership, who is personally affected by the bitterly cold temperatures, the European press cannot avoid reporting on this topic. Doesn’t this extremely cold species undermine the official view of the Orthodox consensus that the climate is getting warmer quickly?
Here is the story from the French Le Figaro from April 9th (my translation):
A severe frost attack hit numerous crops in France this week. Temperatures dropped below 0 degrees Celsius in some places at a rate that had never been reached for the month of April since 1947.
Someone has to quickly explain how this is compatible with “global warming”. Le Figaro calls a Thierry Castel identified as a “climatology researcher”. Here is his explanation:
That is well connected [to global warming]. The temperature differences between the polar zones and the mid-latitudes are decreasing. This process modulates the waves of the jet stream (the fast winds over the North Atlantic that play a major role in atmospheric circulation). Because of this, we are faced with the descent of cold arctic air and the more important movement of warm air northwards.
Sure, Thierry. Meanwhile, in March 2021, the UAH people are reporting another significant drop in world atmospheric temperature. The global temperature anomaly for the month is -0.01 ° C (up from the 30-year mean 1991-2020). That brings us back to about the same temperature as in 1988. Needless to say, Le Figaro was far too polite to confront M. Castel with this information.
Read the full article here.
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