Guest contribution by Willis Eschenbach
This is how the billionaire hype works.
Bill Gates, multi-billionaire inventor of the blue screen of death and impersonator of Mr. Rogers, says without producing evidence to support his claim:
“All cities will be affected by climate change, but coastal cities will have the worst problems. Hundreds of millions of people could be evicted from their homes if sea levels rise and storm surges worsen. By the middle of this century, the cost of climate change could exceed $ 1 trillion for all coastal cities. . . each year.”
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A trillion dollars a year? “Really?” Let’s take a look.
According to the tide gauge records, sea level rise has been around 2mm per year for about a century. There may have been a slight increase in the last few decades, although the data is not convincing. The increase is due to the splicing of the satellite data onto the tidal data. I wrote about it in a post called Inside The Acceleration Factory.
But for Bill’s sake, let’s assume that sea level rise should double by 2050. Most doubtful, of course, but let’s pretend it could happen. This would mean that through 2050 the average increase would be 3 mm (0.12 in) per year.
There are 29 years until 2050. Even with this high estimate, the sea level would only rise by about 9 centimeters by 2050.
So I ask you, how does a three-inch rise in sea level cost coastal cities a trillion dollars? The smallest waves are so big. And how will that slight increase drive “hundreds of millions” out of their homes?
Obviously it won’t. Even if the increase was 50% greater than my numbers, it still won’t. This is just sea-level billionaire hysteria. In most cities, the top-to-bottom tidal range is on the order of about two meters. So if you didn’t have an accurate tide meter you wouldn’t even notice the difference.
But hell, it’s Bill Gates, and he’s rich, so well-meaning fools believe him.
Like I mentioned before … math. Don’t leave your home without it.
And let me add a second rule: don’t trust a billionaire. Guess what? You may not have your best interests in mind …
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