Guest contribution by Willis Eschenbach
From the viewer:
Japan has just raised its target of reducing CO2 emissions from 26 to 46 percent (by 2030 compared to 2013). But how did this number come about, was Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi asked? By carefully analyzing the threat and making a realistic assessment of what could be achieved, taking into account all relevant factors? Well, um no, according to Koizumi, the number 46 only appeared to him in a kind of vision as a “silhouette”.
Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, made an interview with TBS last weekend. Despite her face mask, the interviewer was clearly baffled by the discovery that the country’s emissions target appeared to have no scientific basis. She asked the Minister to confirm what he had said; and he did.
The country is clearly in the best hands …
So I resume my quixotic quest to keep countries from emulating lemmings and chasing one another by jumping off the cliff. Here is the ugly truth.
In 2013, Japan emitted 1.3 gigatons (GT, 109 tons) of carbon dioxide (CO2). Japan emitted 1.1 GT CO2 last year. To hit the magic number of 54% of 2013 emissions, they need to cut emissions to 709 megatons (Mt 106 tons) per year. So you have to reduce your emissions by 396 Mt / year. (Note that this does not mean reducing emissions by 396 million tonnes each year. This means that the annual emission rate is reduced by 396 million tonnes.)
How much do they need to reduce their fossil fuel consumption? Well, Japan emits roughly 245,000 tons of CO2 per terawatt hour (TWh or 1012 watt hours) of fossil fuel energy use. This means that they have to reduce their consumption of fossil fuels by around 1,620 TWh per year. (The current energy consumption of Japanese fossil fuels is around 4,540 TWh / year.)
To calculate the additional CO2 emission free generation capacity they need, we need to divide the terawatt hours / year by 8,760 hours per year to convert it to TWh generation capacity … and then double it.
Why double up? Because this is an average consumption and every power grid must be able to handle peak loads and have reserves available if part of the generation system inevitably fails or needs maintenance. You need about twice the average consumption to cover peak consumption plus the necessary reserves. This means that they need around 369 gigawatts (GW or 109 watts) of new emission-free generation capacity.
Susquehanna steam power station
The only currently available CO2-emission-free basic power source is nuclear energy. Oh, you can add meaningless expensive unreliable intermittent renewables if you want, wind and sun. But you still need basic power when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing …
From now until the first day of 2030 there are 452 weeks. Japan needs 369 additional GW of nuclear power to meet the target.
To achieve Minister Koizumi’s dream-driven goal, Japan would have to find a location for a brand new 1.6 GW nuclear power plant every two weeks, obtain all permits and licenses for excavation, manufacture, installation, testing and commissioning from now until 2030. (For comparison: each of the six nuclear reactors at the Fukushima plant was half the size, 0.8 GW …)
A new. Nuclear. Plant. Everyone. Two. Weeks. Until. 2030.
Yes, that’s perfectly legitimate …
In the USA, it usually takes more than ten years from the preliminary feasibility studies to the final connection of a nuclear power plant. Here’s an overview of the process … and people in the industry have said it’s optimistic.
In addition, the move from burning fossil fuels to nuclear power for heating and transportation means expanding the entire power grid including substations, switchgear, transmission lines, transformers, and power lines in and around homes. The cost of building nuclear power plants and upgrading the power grid will be a huge burden for generations to come.
Look, someone in charge has to stand up and say “That is airy, fairy-like, impossible feel-good madness!” I, my beautiful ex-fiancé, am watching “The Right Stuff” tonight … how did we ever get from that kind of personal strength to our current politicians who perfectly embody “The Wrong Stuff”? Very few of these modern day pussycats have the albondigas that Maggie Thatcher had – they just love to dance and pose for the camera, signaling virtues with classy-sounding wake-up guidelines that can never be implemented.
As I have said about this claim in other countries, Minister Koizumi’s visionary plan is like a 12 year old boy donning blue tights with red skivvies over them, putting on a cloak, proudly declaring he is Superman and jumping out a fourth floor window …
…
…
… won’t fly and there will be a lot of pain for everyone involved.
And all of this to fight an imaginary “climate emergency”.
Sigh … unfortunately there seem to be countless Roolz …
Greetings to all,
w.
My previous equally quixotic analyzes: The calculations for the world that will go to zero by 2050 are included in my post Light Green Impossibilities. The calculations for the US to achieve 50% of 2005 CO2 emissions by 2030 are included in The Latest US CO2 Fantasy.
And the immeasurably small theoretical cooling until 2050, when the US goes to zero CO2 emissions tomorrow, is calculated in Going To Zero. TL; DR version – As you go up in altitude, the air gets cooler. The US would go to zero emissions tomorrow theoretically By 2050, cool the globe by the same amount you would get if you went up three flights of stairs …
My usual request: If you comment Please quote the exact words They are discussing. This avoids at least some of the misunderstandings that plague the Intarwebs.
Data: All data for these analyzes is available on Max Roser’s most informative website, Our World In Data. The consumption of fossil fuels is there and the CO2 emissions are there.
Lemmings: Yes, I know they don’t line up to jump off a cliff to their death, that was just a Disney fantasy … but the US, UK, Japan and many other countries sure are.
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