Proof of the turning level of the Antarctic glacier has been confirmed for the primary time – Watts Up With That?
Researchers have for the first time confirmed that the Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica could cross tipping points, resulting in a rapid and irreversible retreat that would have significant ramifications for global sea levels
NORTHUMBRIA UNIVERSITY
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PICTURE: DR. SEBASTIAN ROSIER AM PINE ISLAND GLACIER 2015 show more CREDIT: DR. SEBASTIAN ROSIER
Researchers have for the first time confirmed that the Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica could cross tipping points, resulting in a rapid and irreversible retreat that would have significant ramifications for global sea levels.
Pine Island Glacier is a fast-flowing ice region that drains an area of West Antarctica roughly two-thirds the size of Great Britain. The glacier is of particular concern as it is losing more ice than any other glacier in Antarctica.
Currently, Pine Island Glacier, along with neighboring Thwaites Glacier, is responsible for about 10% of the sustained rise in global sea levels.
Scientists have argued for some time that this region of Antarctica could reach a tipping point and suffer an irreversible retreat from which it was unable to recover. Such a retreat, once started, could lead to the collapse of the entire West Antarctic ice sheet, which contains enough ice to raise global sea levels by more than three meters.
While the general possibility of such a tipping point within the ice sheet has already been mentioned, showing that Pine Island Glacier has the potential to enter into an unstable retreat is a whole other question.
Now, for the first time, researchers at Northumbria University have shown that this is indeed the case.
Their results are published in the leading journal The Cryosphere.
Using a state-of-the-art ice flow model developed by the Northumbria Glaciological Research Group, the team has developed methods to identify tipping points within ice sheets.
For Pine Island Glacier, their study shows that the glacier has at least three different tipping points. The third and final event, triggered by sea temperatures rising by 1.2 ° C, leads to an irreversible retreat of the entire glacier.
The researchers say that long-term warming and swarming trends in circumpolar deep water, combined with changing wind patterns in the Amundsen Sea, could expose the Pine Island Glacier ice shelf to warmer waters for extended periods of time and likely cause temperature changes of this magnitude to increase.
The study’s lead author, Dr. Sebastian Rosier, is a research assistant to the Vice Chancellor at the Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences in Northumbria. He specializes in modeling processes for controlling ice flow in Antarctica with the aim of understanding how the continent will contribute to future sea level rise.
Dr. Rosier is a member of the university’s glaciological research group, led by Professor Hilmar Gudmundsson, who is currently working on a large £ 4 million study to investigate whether climate change will drive the Antarctic ice sheet towards a tipping point.
Dr. Rosier stated, “The potential of this region to cross a tipping point has been increased in the past, but our study is the first to confirm that Pine Island Glacier actually exceeds these critical thresholds.
“Many different computer simulations around the world try to quantify how a changing climate could affect the West Antarctic ice sheet. However, it is challenging to determine whether a phase of retreat is a turning point in these models.
“This is a crucial question, however, and the methodology used in this new study makes it much easier to identify potential future turning points.”
Hilmar Gudmundsson, Professor of Glaciology and Extreme Environments, worked with Dr. Rosier on the study. He added, “The possibility of Pine Island Glacier entering an unstable retreat has been mentioned, but this is the first time that this possibility has been rigorously established and quantified.
“This is an important step forward in understanding the dynamics of this area and I am thrilled that we have finally been able to provide clear answers to this important question.
“But the results of this study also concern me. Should the glacier enter an unstable irreversible retreat, the impact on sea level could be measured in meters. As this study shows, once it begins, it may be impossible to stop withdrawal. “
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The paper The Turning Points and Early Warning Indicators for Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is now available in The Cryosphere.
Northumbria is fast becoming the UK’s leading university for the study of Antarctica and extreme environments.
In addition to the £ 4m tipping point study known as TiPPACCs, Northumbria is also the only UK university involved in two £ 20mn international Thwaites Glacier Collaboration projects – the UK’s largest joint venture have performed in Antarctica for more than 70 years – where Northumbria is leading the PROPHET and GHC projects. This particular study was funded by both TiPPACCs and PROPHET.
From EurekAlert!
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