Climate model failure – watts with it? Jump to content
By Andy May
On January 22nd, 2021 John Christy presented a new online talk to the Irish Climate Science Forum. The interview was arranged by Jim O’Brien. A summary of the presentation can be found here on clintel.org. In this post we present two interesting graphics from the presentation. These compare observations with the climate model projections of the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5, 2013) and the CMIP6 (current set of IPCC models).
Figure 1. CMIP5 models compared to weather balloon observations in green. The details of why the models statistically fail can be seen in a 2018 article by McKitrick and Christy here.
The next diagram compares the newer CMIP6 models with both the weather balloon data (light green) and the weather analysis data (dark green).
Figure 2. CMIP6 models compared to weather balloon data in light green and weather reanalysis data in dark green.
The difference between the models and the observations is statistically significant and shows that the models have been invalidated. It is also important that the CMIP6 spread of the model results is worse than the CMIP5 spread. Therefore, the newer models are less consistent than the previous ones. “Houston, we have a problem.”
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