Our new knowledge for the previous New Jersey regulation map reveals the Democrats are in no hazard of dropping this fall

The existing map was created in 2011 and used for the first time, but is being kept a little longer than planned. Last year, voters passed a constitutional amendment backed by Democratic Legislators urging the state to use the current legal limits for the 2021 election if New Jersey did not receive census data required for redistribution by February 15, which was exactly what ultimately happened. (The Virginia Delegate House, where we have previously published the election dates for 2020 will also hold this year’s elections with his 2011 card.)

Now for the numbers. Joe Biden won New Jersey by a clear 57:41, which allowed him to carry 29 constituencies compared to 11 for Donald Trump. Team Blue also enjoys a 52-28 edge in assembly and a 25-15 majority in the Senatealthough, as we will discuss, Republicans will have significantly more overlapping seats ahead of this year’s election.

It’s hard to believe now, but the GOP went into 21st with majorities in every chamber. It wasn’t long, however, before it turned sour for the Republicans: in 2001 the Democrats overturned both the assembly and the governorship, while both parties a power-sharing agreement drawn up after they were bound in the Senate. Team Blue took full control of the Upper Chamber just two years later and, despite GOP victories, never looked back in either the 2009 or 2013 gubernatorial elections.

We begin with the convention, at which each district currently sends either two Democratic members or two Republicans to Trenton. (Last time a constituency split its votes and elected a Democrat and a Republican was 2015.) A total of eight Republicans represent Biden District, while two Democrats are from Trump districts.

The bluest seat of the GOP is LD-21, a constituency that includes parts of the Morris, Somerset, and Union counties in the New York City area. Mitt Romney prevailed 52-47 in 2012, but this is one of the many suburban seats across the country that swung dramatically to the left during the Trump era: Hillary Clinton led District 53-43 in 2016, while Biden ran 58-40 last year took. However, this transformation did not quite take hold of the vote. Minority Leader Jon Bramnick won first place with 26% of the vote in his last race in 2019, while Minority Whip Nancy Muñoz beat her Democratic opponent 25:24 for second place.

Meanwhile, the only Trump seats held by the Democrats are in LD-03, a South Jersey constituency that has moved in the opposite direction. Barack Obama won by a solid 55:44 lead in 2012, only to prevail 50:46 four years later, and Trump picked up again in 2020, albeit with a smaller lead of 50:48. But as in LD-21, the Democrats held the ballot down: Rep. John Burzichelli gained 28% in 2019 as co-owner Adam Taliaferro beat his closest GOP rival 27-23.

We turn to the Senate, where five Republicans are from Biden seats, while LD-03 is again the only Trump seat held by the Democrats. That Democrat is Steve Sweeney the powerful long-time President of the Senate who has spent much of his career infuriating many in his party. In 2017, the last time Sweeney was on the ballot, the New Jersey Education Association even took the unusual step: Supporting his Republican opponentbut that didn’t stop the incumbent Winning a very expensive 59-41 campaign.

The bluest Senate seat held by the GOP, on the other hand, is LD-16, a four-district seat that, depending on who you ask, is located entirely in Central Jersey or North Jersey. (The very existence of Central Jersey remains a controversial issue in some circles, with Democratic Governor Phil Murphy once calling it “a little mystical kingdom” – much like Camelot. later clearly tweeted, “As Governor of the Great State of New Jersey, I hereby declare that CENTRAL JERSEY EXISTS.”)

That constituency backed Obama 53-45 in 2012, and it’s only gotten more Democratic since then: Clinton won 55-41 here while Biden won a 60-38 landslide last year. Long-time Republican Senator Christopher Bateman held at 50.5-49.5 in 2017, but his resignation gives MP Andrew Zwicker a good opportunity to flip the seat for Team Blue. Zwicker’s GOP enemy is former representative for one term Michael Pappaswho earned his brief moment in the political spotlight in 1998 when he walked into the house to deliver an ode to the special attorney who investigated the Clinton White House who began, “Twinkle, twinkle, Kenneth Starr / Now we see how brave you are.”

The GOP is also defending another open seat, the nearby and previously mentioned LD-21. This constituency is held by minority leader Tom Kean Jr., who lost a close race in the 7th Congressional District to Democratic incumbent Tom Malinowski in 2020. However, Kean decided against re-election to Focus on a rematch with Malinowski. The GOP picks up Bramnick while the Democrats run Roselle Park Mayor Joseph Signorello.

In addition, a total of three legislative districts are represented by a senator from one party and two MPs from the other party. LD-02, a 55-44 Biden constituency in Atlantic County, South Jersey, elected Republican Senator Chris Brown and Democratic MPs Vincent Mazzeo and John Armato. However brown, terminated this summer accept a post in Murphy’s administration and the Republicans appointed former MP Vince Polistina to succeed him. This fall, Polistina will take on Mazzeo, who is seeking a promotion. LD-16, where Bateman is retiring, is located in a similar fashion.

The only district with a Democratic Senator and two GOP assembly members is LD-08, where Senate Senator Dawn Addiego changed parties join the Democrats just over a year after he was re-elected as a Republican. Addiego will meet GOP Assemblywoman Jean Stanfield this fall for this South Jersey seat who supported Biden 53-46.

There is another unusual aspect of New Jersey politics that we are going to discuss. It used to be quite common for the legislature to hold a local council office at the same time, a Practice known locally as “double dipping”. Legislators passed a law in 2007 ending this for the future, but it allowed all concerned incumbents to retain both offices as long as voters continue to re-elect them for each. Four Democratic MPs, all of whom are running again this year, remain in both offices, including Senator Brian Stack, who is also mayor of Union City and a major power player in Hudson County.

Oh about Asbury Park? It’s in LD-11, who voted 55 to 43 for Biden. The boss is known as the vocal champion of the Democratic Party. So if one day a seat becomes vacant, maybe it was actually born to walk …

PS Since we published our presidential results for the New Jersey Congressional Districts earlier this year, we have received information from Essex County that enables us to publish more accurate calculations for the 8th, 10th, and 11th districts. The 10th shifted from 82.8-16.4 biden to 84.2-15.0 biden while the 8th shifted similarly from 73.1-25.9 biden to 71.8-27.2 biden moved. The 11th, being the most competitive of this trio, had the smallest change, from 52.9-45.8 biden to 52.7-46.0 biden.