The Civiqs data is worse than similar surveys of other outlets that were already worrying. This can be partly due to differences in the way the question is asked. For example, in May, a Quinnipiac University poll found that 66% of Republicans disagreed that “Joe Biden’s win in the 2020 presidential election was legitimate.” But in almost every poll on the subject over the past few months, at least a majority, and usually closer to two-thirds, of Republicans take turns saying they believe the election was stolen and that Biden is not the legitimate president. This level of delusion among GOP voters is a persistent reality that won’t go away.
The results from Civiqs this week seem to echo the previous surveys the outlet conducted for Daily Kos. In last month’s co-branded poll, 74% of GOP voters identified themselves as “pro-Trump Republicans,” while only 6% identified themselves as “anti-Trump Republicans,” and 17% of Republican voters said that they did not have strong feelings towards Trump.
So if about three-quarters of GOP voters call themselves pro-Trump, it is no leap to imagine that 80% of Republican voters say they “agree” with Trump’s false claim that he was stolen in 2020.
The pervasive distrust of Republican voters in the electoral system is worrying at every level, but how the election will play out is an open question. On the one hand, Republican voters could rush to the polls in the next few cycles, fueled by their outrage in 2020. GOP politicians certainly hope so.
But in another scenario, Trump’s constant fixation on his totally baseless and unproven claims about 2020 could serve to squeeze voter turnout among his cultists while stimulating a small but potentially important sliver of Never-Trumpers.
In the Civiqs poll, 11% of GOP voters said they don’t believe the election was stolen. It is possible that some of these voters are actually disgusted with the continued loyalty of GOP lawmakers to Trump and his destructive lies. In fact, a fairly constant segment of GOP voters, around 18%, has told pollsters that they would like Trump not to play a role in party development.
At the same time, according to a new poll by AP-NORC this week, Republicans have a gloomy view of the party as a whole. Only 41% of GOP respondents said they were optimistic about the state of the party. Most likely, both Pro-Trumper and Nie-Trumper are dismayed that the Republican Party has broken with its position.
In fact, the Republican Party is now Trumpier than ever, but it will never be enough for Trump and his cult following. This is not good news for the GOP and worse news for the country, but the short-term election effects could ultimately be a net plus for the Democrats.
To be honest, it’s all guesswork at this point; the country is in deeply unknown territory.
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